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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Dmitry Orlov

Someone E-Mailed me this video by Dmitry Orlov.

He's saying "In the Soviet Union, people knew that government was useless. There already was a black market. This helped people survive the collapse.

In the USA, there's no black market. This means people will be really screwed as the government collapses.

People have nobody they can rely on, except for direct immediate family (parents, children, siblings)."

It seems that he's advocating for agorism!

The "militia anti-government movement" is doing the right thing to prepare. They're making connections outside the official State economy.

He also said "In the USA, the leaders are completely out of touch with reality. They're hopeless pro-State trolls. Talking to them is a waste of time."

He said at 16:30 "recession slash depression". Does he read my blog? I write "recession/depression", but I haven't seen that much elsewhere.

Here's a conversation with one of my coworkers that summarizes the problem pretty well:

FSK: The financial industry is one big scam!
Coworker: I know! Isn't that wonderful! I'm going exploit the flaws and make a lot of money!
FSK: The collapse is coming. You should learn something useful, instead of financial tricks.
Coworker: Who cares? I'm going to make my fortune and then cash out. Why should I care if it collapses later?
Suppose all the leaders and middle managers are thinking "I'm going to steal as much as I can. Who cares if it collapses later?" Doesn't that guarantee collapse?


Anonymous said...

You can already see that everyone up on top is trying to steal as much as they can and cash-out now, because they have already been informed by their economists (do not mistake a lying bastard for an incompetent economist) that the collapse is imminent.

Look at the trillions they are printing, look at the bailouts, look at the incredible wasteful new programs, - do you really think that all the money are going to be spent?

No. They money are being stolen and converted to gold. The ETF stockholders are going to be left with nothing, because that is the vehicle to acquire gold for connected parties.

At a later stage, there are going to be some confiscations, then shot-outs, because there has to appear a small group of insiders desperate to insure the continuation of govt. (they are not being informed now) and they will try to scrape some gold FOR the govt. Then, there is going to appear a group of violent insiders, that will be active immediately before and during collapse.

Anonymous said...

> The collapse is coming.

You do have your water filters, dried food, tents, guns, knives, axes, tools, seeds, a car, fuel, solar panels and an escape plan to somewhere less densely populated don't you?

If you are rich enough you will have your own gated community or self-sufficient ranch.

FSK said...

No, Anonymous #2, I'm completely unprepared right now.

By my estimates, there's still another 10-20 years left.

Even if you had all those things, there's a deeper question "Are you prepared to defend your resources from raiders, once the collapse occurs?" A couple of people with guns won't cut it, against a semi-organized paramilitary assault team.

Ronnie said...

10-20 years??? Are you going by the Social Security pamphlet they mail you once a year to tell you that you will not recieve the money they have stolen from you when you retire?

I'm with Anon-2. It's like 2-3 years TOPS.

Try the best to defend your stuff, but if all else fails, at least blow your house up with the raiders in it so that you don't go out alone:)

Anonymous said...

>By my estimates, there's still
>another 10-20 years left.

Super! I have enough time to write quite a bit more software before the electricity goes out and nobody can run it!

Anonymous said...

>I'm with Anon-2. It's like 2-3
>years TOPS.

Despite my previous comment about vital supplies, I still haven't stocked up.

What is your justification for the system collapsing in 2 - 3 years, rather than in 10 years?

Russia, India and China might be more prepared for things getting bad as opposed to the US or UK. I think the UK being resource poor could end up badly hit. At least the USA does have a lot of gas. If needs be that gas can be converted into liquids. Processes are available for this. Or just run cars and trucks on natural gas.

I thought we had enough oil for the next 30 years. If you email an oil company or visit their website you can find out their reserves. Wikipedia tells you the annual world consumption.

DC said...

One of the best pieces of advice Dmitry gives is to not worry about the future collapse. Preparing yourself as best you can is wise, but worry is just a waste.
FSK you are correct that raiders will be the biggest problem for most people trying to survive the transition. I have thought about this problem a lot . . . and I think that the only solution is to live in a rural area and develop close relationships with like minded males in your town. (If you do not live in a rural area join a city gang). These people will become the towns militia. They may not be able to with stand a full military assault by the government, but they will be able to take on raiding parties.(Look at how well the Taliban is doing against the US military.)
FSK you may not realize this because you are living in a big city, but people have been stockpiling incredible amounts of ammunition in the countryside.

DC said...

@Ronnie. You are not thinking clearly.Wasting explosives to blow up your own house is stupid. Presumably you have hidden some food or trading items in your house. Simply wait for the bad guys to leave (a few days to be safe) then reenter and take your stuff.

FSK said...

Another risk occurs during the collapse. What happens if the President orders the confiscation of your gold and silver, but the collapse isn't complete yet? At this point, the police will still be enforcing the confiscation law. (Besides, they'd be paid on commission based on what they steal.)

If you buy gold or silver from a State-licensed dealer, you know that someone, somewhere, is keeping track of who's buying gold and silver.

ArrowThief said...

I need to quote from an author I read a lot: "The black market is activity that is illegal. This includes drugs, prostitution, and illegal gambling. Any non-government-sanctioned violence is also black market, such as a gangster-directed assassination."

It's from *The Five Levels of the Economy" by FSK July 2007.

That is a very true post. We need to get back to more of a "White Market" where productive workers are rewarded and parasitic Corp. Insiders & Banksters Lo$e.
But a white market is hard to achieve because the Red market feeds off of it. Grey & Black Market activity will increase , starving the Red Market.


Anonymous said...

No, according to my memories ( I have seen the collapse) - none of you will do well.

There is no like-minded type. This is because everyone will go by what his stomach is telling him.

The ones prepared are the ones raided and killed. If you think you can sustain the push of us army, you are beyond my help. The weapons you are paying for now, will be used against you.

A community? How about a gang of animals? Look around. Do you see any honorable people? (if they vote on someoneelse's property, - they are just thieves in hiding).

But, that will be brief. More dangerous is a much longer period when the new or interim government orders "everyone to pull together".
So, the prepared will be ordered to give everything up to share with unprepared, that's right with all those idiots running around now buying houses, and all those thieves who caused the collapse in the first place.

So, fuck this. I ain't living through another one. I will move out before SHTF. I'd rather read about it in newspapers.

I think we have 2 to 5 years max.

FSK, the point of owning it is that you hide it and do not tell where is it. You claim you lost it or spent it. That is the difference between yours (physical) and that belonging to fucking masters (everything else).

Ronnie said...

DC, I would not blow up my house obviously if I did not have to. But if I was going to be murdered by the raiders anyway, I would.

Anon 7:46- I don't think oil is going away either. Economic collapse will happen in the next 2-3 years in the US I believe. (I forget about posters elsewhere sometimes).

FSK-Just buy silver on craigslist. It's beautiful and anonymous, and there are people (individuals not dealers) buying and selling all the time.

Mike said...

...on your confiscation concerns:

the way to buy is to befriend someone who is begging for alcohol. You set up an account for him, and buy under his name. you pay him in whiskey for services such as depositing cash and taking delivery. if u don't like the risk, then find more easy person, someone who needs money, like a single mom. When they come to her and ask where it is, she will say she did what she had to do to survive, and you'll be long gone.

DC said...

@ anonymous #5 above.
Your solution to an impending collapse is to:
1. run away
2. not prepare anything for fear of confiscation.
3. do not trust your reliable friends.

Somehow your plan does not appeal to me.

By the way there are honorable men in the world. If you do not think so then you probably have never met any of them, or you yourself are not an honorable person.

I think you are spot on correct that long term survival is much more difficult than short term (one year) survival. I do not think the collapse will be long term. Humans have amassed a tremendous amount of technical knowledge in the last 2000 years. It will not completely evaporate in a few years.

All gun sales are reported to the government. This could be a major problem for people during confiscation because gun owners could be targeted by address. Also the census has accumulated GPS coordinates on every front door of every house in the US.
I have a way around this difficulty, but it is expensive.
@ Ronnie please do not blow yourself up! I did not realize your intent was to save the rest of us from thugs.

FSK said...

I don't know anyone I could rely on right now.

Ironically, my most trustworthy coworkers are also the ones I suspect of being undercover police.

Kevin D. M. said...

This is funny, but I have seen this attitude elsewhere (Simon Black forum). Most people imagine that this is America, and they are going to stay and fight supported by those they trust. Most are opposed to running away (the hard solution), claiming they'd rather die protecting their home.

What they are really saying is that when the time comes, they will rollover and do to whatever government demands. They reject even thinking about the correct solution, because it is too hard.
We have had it too easy for too long. Life seems scary to most now.

This should give you some chilling thoughts if you are trying to estimate the numbers of people you might be able to trust and fight with.

(I agree with "got to leave the dodge" thinking)

FSK said...

If you're going to run away, run to where? Other countries are just as bad as the USA or worse.

I've heard that Brazil and some other South American countries are best right now. People there know that the government is corrupt, so they don't take it as seriously.

Both options are unattractive. For personal reasons, I'm staying in NYC, for now.

Regrettably, I don't know anyone that I could really count on in a true emergency.

Anonymous said...

>If you're going to run away, run to

The United States is a big country. Choose somewhere near fresh running water or groundwater wells. Can you buy a house in hick county / white trash areas?

If things get bad the police will have the guns and will have some organization. If you are outside of a big city, you can avoid getting the first wave of attacks.

Buy a house and dig out a big hole somewhere near and fill that with your supplies. In out of the way places there will be plenty of land without houses on nearby.

Canada is next door and they have a lot of natural resources. When things get bad Canada might be a safer place. Too bad you would need a visa to legally enter.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't anyone else notice how funny the "dug-in" principle is?

Usually, a proponent of a "dug-in" argument says that:

1) there is nowhere to run, and other countries are just shitholes.

Yet, he is ready, advising and seriously considering to buy property somewhere he will be needing: water well, his own power, lots of like minded individuals to ward off the waves of gangs, guns and survival stock.

2) there is a need for survival stock and survival mindset. Meaning there is going to be no law, no government.

Yet, he is going to spend precious capital on buying a land in the hicks. Why buy it? The waves of zombies aren't going to care if you legally own it! Between your community firepower, those of police and that of zombies, the police is #3, isn't it?

Besides, even if you own it, the communist dictatorship isn't going to be concerned with your property rights anyway, so they are going to kill you and take it as soon as they can.

There are more points in "dug-in" idea that make no sense just like the two above. It is for this reason, I don't take "dug-in" folks seriously. And if you do, then be aware that when SHTF, real seriousness does matter. The way you die is because you are a wannabe or you are with one. You find yourself in a fight without having a battle plan, and that is a death sentence 99.9% of the time.

The way you survive is simple: you do what ever is necessary that puts you in the better position overall than the other guy, and specifically if a specific treat is present. If you waste your resource on preparing for situation that is not going to happen, then you are gone. You must always make right choice.

Now compare chances of survival of someone living with all conveniences in some so-called shithole country, and the one dug-in locally to ward of the waves of man eaters.

-If he is right, then he is likely to perish, because he had made the mistake number 1 in survival, and that is he did not relocate away from a threat when it was possible. Those looking for encounter are playing the game of chance, because bullets are dumb and unfair.

-If he is wrong then he will find himself in opposition to the people's army of a new interim government holding down a resource of people's republic. He is declared an enemy of the state and summarily executed.

-Most likely he is going realize his unpreparedness when the push comes to shove and just roll over, and so that is where he is going to be slaving away on the people's farm, - in the hicks country.

Again, compare that with someone who kept his choices open, his freedom of movement, his capital secure and ready for deployment anytime and anywhere there is an opportunity. If it happens to be back here, then he is going to be employing the "dug-in" guy for pennies on a dollar.

In any turmoil, smart money run. And this is why they survive. Compare any immigration wave with those who stayed behind.

I think what severely blinds most Americans is the bs they are fed in school, about the 1776. Conveniently, the teachers are omitting the fact that there is no Jefferson and Hamilton anymore, and without that, just like in any other revolution, what comes after is worse than what was before. Also that the people are all thieves (accept taxation) and you can't build anything with thieves. Even if there are, say a million of honest folks who agree that taxation is a theft, then they are going to be one against 300. Founders were rugged men, not like us, and even they would not try to stand one against 300, if they still have a choice of not having to have a stand-off but simply wait till the other side starves itself out.

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