I noticed a new fnord phrase circulating. It's called "green shoots". On the Communism Channel, the comedians say "There are now some green shoots, the initial stages of an economic recovery."
It's amusing to notice how new fnord phrases originate. It seems coordinated. They are introduced somewhere, and then all of a sudden everyone is using them. I've seen "green shoots" used in several places recently.
As I mentioned before, the economic recovery is an illusion. Money supply inflation is misreported as economic growth. If true inflation is 20%, the CPI is 5%, and the noninflation-adjusted GDP "grows" by 10%, then a pro-State troll economist will say "There was 5% economic growth!", when the economy really shrunk by another 10% if you count inflation correctly.
For the past few months, banks have been profitable again. What a surprise! After trillions of dollars of direct and indirect bailout money, combined with a Fed Funds Rate of 0%-0.25%, large banks are profitable again.
Money supply inflation is misreported as economic growth. An economic recovery is merely huge profits for insiders, at the expense of everyone else. During the second half of the Great Depression, the banksters made huge profits while the everyone else was still suffering from the depression. Similarly, this will probably be another fake recovery, where insiders profit immensely while the average person is worse off.
"The USA is dependent on continuous economic growth to survive." is false. There must be continuous money supply inflation, due to the Compound Interest Paradox. Due to biased inflation measures like the CPI, money supply inflation is confused with the creation of useful goods and services.
All the abuses of the housing boom are forgotten and forgiven. Insiders at large banks may start loading up on leverage again and start paying themselves huge bonuses again. There will be another 1-3 years of inflationary boom, followed by another unexpected recession.
It isn't obvious what sector of the economy is going to enter the next inflationary boom. It is guaranteed that there will be another bubble. As a non-insider, you won't know until it's too late. Even though I am aware of the corrupt economic system and the inevitable business cycles, I can't profit as a non-insider. I don't know when the boom will start and the crash will occur. I'm not "too big to fail", so I don't qualify for a bailout if I'm wrong. If I hold cash to invest during a recession, then I will get ripped off by inflation during the boom. If I maximize my leverage during the boom, then I will be wiped out during the next bust.
The cycles of propaganda are matched in lockstep with State-induced business cycles. Now, we're in the "inflate next bubble" phase of the business cycle. Pretty soon, the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates to set up the next recession/depression.
It's amusing to see new fnord phrases like "green shoots" get introduced. It's also amusing to see money supply inflation misreported as economic growth.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
"Green Shoots" Fnord
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4 comments:
Since the official, first 'dotcom bubble' in the early 2000s, they've still been doing big, expensive websites based on borrowed money, making no profit at all, which then go bankrupt a few years later. In other words, they're still making the same mistakes over and over again, just like the dotcom bubble, and it isn't even anything new. People are still doing the dotcom bubble.
I am wondering how long it will be before the big social networking sites go down, because they're based on advertising revenue, which is unreliable at best. I assume that's their only source of income.
There will probably be more housing bubbles, and when they happen, people will still go along with it the way they did the first time, saying 'Yay! The price of my house went up! I'm going to sell it and buy another house and make a profit!' It doesn't even really have to be something new and unexpected. People don't mind doing the same things over and over.
http://blog.rebeltraders.net/2009/06/17/rail-freight-traffic-green-shoots-turn-to-weeds/
http://ibankcoin.com/cronkite/?p=6310
Do we know for certain the enxt big bubble? No, but that doesn't mean we can't make bets that are more likely than not to be right.
I tend to think that solar energy is big propaganda that has been running. "save the earth, invest in alternative energy" type of fnord that has been being pushed for a long time. Meanwhile the big oil companies are moving towards solar and wind as if some tiny indurstry is going to be enough for hundreds of billions of dollars of assets that oil companies have.
Yet despite this industry being very small, Government is about to pump 200 billion if obama continues his promises to spend on it, which doesn't seem out of line from what he has been doing.
However, this is HUGE compared to the size of this industry, and that alone has reason why it goes up.
Also, there seems to have always been a trend towards food shortages after the government mismanages money. GOld is a hedge against this mismanagement, as food/agriculture is a hedge against extreme mismanagement because the government's actions results in civil unrest. If you beleive there will be some kind of revolt, or these protests will continue, or if you believe that the credits will freeze and contract so rapidly that food cannot be paid for, or shipping and transportation will go under, or if you believe massive inflation will raise cost of living significantly and civil unrest and tax protests will result as people will demand food since the most important things in life for our own survival are food, water, and oxygen. There's also potential for greater wars if things really get extreme, so if you are okay with providing money and funding wars, which I am not, that is another potential bubble in the future.
There also will most likely need to be a collapse of commercial real estate as there is just too much debt, too may foreclosures and tax credits promoting mocving out of a rental and into a bank foreclosure, lowered cashflow resulting in lower prices and so on.
Commercial real estate lags residential, but after the banks seize properties and sell them for 20% below value until that lowers the other properties, puts people in negative equity position resulting in foreclosure, sold for 20% below, and the cycle continues as housing values are lowered and the banks continue to make quick money.The problem is that if the credit consolidates enough, these foreclosures will be so massive that eventually the banks themselves become victem to there not being enough money to go around. The fed simply continues to hike the rates and soon it's the banks "in foreclosure" starts with the smaller banks, and progressing. Of course if one of the larger bank goes under it the US government says "don't worry, we'll pay for it, and the US takes care of the outstanding debt owed to the federal reserve.... of course mostly the tax payer, or through inflation we take care of it.
I look at Fnords a little bit different, I look at it more of not so much brainwashing people into believing the system works and to obey and things like that, but to actually use them to help create the future, rather than maintain the status quo.
I think that the Fnords are actually programmed to get our minds thinking a certain way. Through Quantom physics string theory, law of attraction, or the "fnord" term for it is "collective unconscious" (yes the public is collectively unconscious), whatever you call it actually causes people to take actions that result in the creation of a certain reality. If you aren't conscious of what message is being put out there, you can't consciously deny the messages you are being sent. It's like when you fold up the dollar bills you can see the twin towers... this is "magik". The use of physical to imprint on our minds to create reality in the future.
So what is "green shoots"...
I see it as a call to war...
The green men... the army, shoots, as in ready aim shoot... Now we will all get excited about war, because we associated stock market gains and financial gain, and joy and positive emotions with this "I get to be a 'green shoot'!" essentially our psychee will think. Then combined with the right war propaganda and being nobel and defending your country, it's an "easy in".
Of course I don't rule out that it might be some other propaganda to get people to start thinking they need to buy green shoots, and stock up on agriculture, or perhaps it's a warning for those that know to start buying agriculture, as these "enlightened ones" will see the signs and make a fortune off of it. I think last year at this time, I was starting to notice some fnords about oil collapsing, but I didn't know what they were and didn't understand them. I was however paying more attention to what kind of messages were being sent, but at the time I didn't know if it was a sign to help or hurt or if it was just a "synchronicity" or what.
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