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Monday, May 25, 2009

Swine Flu Fnord

There's been a lot of mainstream media hype regarding the swine flu. The hype causes people to be filled with fear and uncertainty, when the actual risk of dying from the swine flu is much less than other factors.

For example, Obama says "There's nothing to worry about." At the same time, Biden says "OMFG!! Panic!!" Contradictory messages keep everyone on edge and uncertain.

All of the people who died or got seriously ill from the swine flu already had other serious health problems. If you're otherwise in good health, your risk from the swine flu is negligible. Even if exposed and you get sick, you probably won't get more sick than for a regular flu.

There is a risk that there will be a new virus that wipes out a substantial percentage of the world's population. The swine flu is not that virus. Scientists should study the swine flu and try to develop a vaccine. The actual risk does not justify the hype.

The swine flu hype illustrates the Matrix in action. Most people cannot properly think rationally or emotionally. Most people will react to the emotions of the mainstream media hype, rather than actually analyzing the risk. Most people look at the worst-case outcome, "I could die from the swine flu", rather than the average-case outcome, "If I'm already healthy, my risk from swine flu is negligible. There are other bigger problems for me to worry about."

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