China Bans Unauthorized Reincarnation

This is one of my favorite bits. The Dalai Lama is an important Tibetan religious figure. Currently, he is living outside Chinese-controlled Tibet. He is an old man and will probably die soon. He has stated that he intends to reincarnate somewhere outside the Chinese government's control, for obvious political reasons.

China has responding with a law regulating where people may reincarnate. My question is: Are enough people fooled by this law to actually make it worth passing? There will be two Dalai Lamas, the fake one promoted by China's government, and the "genuine" one promoted by Tibetans living outside of China.