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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Restraining 9 Year Olds Who are too Talented

I didn't like this story, cited in many location. A 9 year old boy can throw a 40 mph fastball. Concerned for the safety of other players, the league banned him from the 8-10 year old league.

The spin on the story is "Outrageous! How dare a sports league restrict a talented player!" There was discussion of the player suing the league for excluding him.

The obvious solution was not mentioned. The boy should play in a league for older children, or join an all-star team.

In a recreational league for 8-10 year old children, a 40 mph fastball is not appropriate. What if other children in the league are playing baseball for the first time, or are not very skilled? The league acted appropriately, concerned for the safety of other players. None of the mainstream media articles I read considered the obligation the league has for the safety of its other players. The standard of a professional baseball league should not be applied to a recreational league for 8-10 year old children.

Consider the following equivalent story. "My 9 year old is bored in school! He complains that it's a waste of time and the lessons are too easy!" Most parents would, by default, assume it's their child's problem. The child would probably be diagnosed with attention deficit disorder and be drugged into submission.

A lot of these children who can throw fastballs at a young age burn out their arms. Almost none of them become professional baseball players. A 9 year old throwing 40 mph fastballs is probably bad for the child's arm development. I read some sources that said a child should not attempt to throw a fastball until he is 16-18 years old, lest he damage his growing arm.

In the USA, athletic prowess is valued, but intellectual prowess is not. Holding back a talented 9 year old baseball player is a serious crime. Holding back a 9 year old child from learning is the primary function of schools.


Anonymous said...

So, then it is not a 8-10 year old league, but in fact, a league of weak throwers. They have prooved that the age is not an indicator for them, but only a weakness. They should stop their lies and rename themselves by their guiding principle. (Don't hold your breath. Everything is based on lies).

Anonymous said...

this is TOTALLY unrelated, but i had to post this. i found this post of yours in the archives, wherey you can't comment:

There are so many errors in teh way you explain the DCF, that Ihave to keep toggling back and forth to the post itself to keep track of them all.

1) the DCF reflects the PV of free cash flow, not net income, but that's a small one (unless someoone actually pays you to do a DCF, in which case it's a significant mistake), so we'll let it go.

2) the discount rate used is not the rate of LT bond yields. typically using the CAPM, an equity risk premium is added to LT bond yields, and than beta may or may not serve as a multiplier to this number. (in fairness, it could also diminish it). then, the specific company's Alpha, which accounts for the risk inherent in that specific company (in excess of equity market risk), like maybe they have shaky management, or maybe they have a weak balance sheet, low growth, don't manage their working capital well, etc etc... this number typically turns out atleast 10% higher than LT bond yields. maybe that's why your DCF is so off..well, plus...

3) the DCF is NOT the most conservative method of valuation. capitalizing cash flow is. think about it, in a DCF, you're allowing whoever is producing the cash flow forecast to make all kinds of predictions. they are usually aggressive, as mngmt like to claim that growth will be strong going forward. there are more reasons for this but i'll move on...

4) your assertion that DCFs typically run 10 - 20 years out. this is sometimes true, but usually it's much lower..most commonly you see 5 years out. after all, what kind of genie can predict the future that well??

5) This is another biggie. you say that we assign a value of zero to all cash flow after year 20. IN FACT, you assign some sort of exit value, EBITDA multiple, or PV of the last year's CF in perpetuity. This is often referred to as the terminal value. it is common for 40% - 80% of company value lies in its terminal value. again, another litttle reason your DCF might be off..

6?) your assertion that the dollar is worthless is ridiculous. if so, can i have all your money?

i'm gonna stop there ...i'm tired of going back and forth...

anyway, this comment is meant to help...not to flame....but you should really know what you're talking about if you're gonna be posting this stufff.

i'm not even gonna click on your 'black scholes is wrong' post lol...

20000miles said...

Good post! My primary school reluctantly bumped me up one grade, all the while assuming my parents my elitist.

Athletically gifted students are given loads of funding to develop their talents while intellectually gifted students are denied similar programmes.

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