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Friday, February 13, 2009

Is the Collapse of the State Inevitable?

Frequently, I write "There are approximately only 20 more years left until the State collapses!" A lot of people are skeptical over that estimate. It is only approximate, but I consider the evidence overwhelming.

There are several arguments in favor of complete economic collapse within the next two decades.

  1. Historically, no fiat monetary system has ever lasted longer than approximately 100 years. Insiders cannot resist the temptation to print more money and give it to themselves. This is happening right now in the USA.
  2. There has been massive consolidation in the financial industry, which practically guarantees that the next crisis will be more severe. Due to the Compound Interest Paradox, boom/bust cycles are guaranteed by the rules of the monetary system.
  3. The Federal government has massive obligations for Social Security and Medicare. These obligations are "untouchable" not because the elderly are a loyal voting block, but because the primary purpose of these plans is to loot and pillage workers. (If the candidates for both parties ran on a "reform Social Security" platform, then the elderly would be SOL.) For almost its entire existence, Social Security taxes collected have exceeded benefits paid. The profits of this massive Ponzi scam have been used to pay for current State expenses. If there was a public default on these obligations, then current workers would no longer be willing to contribute taxes towards this Ponzi scam. Social Security and Medicare will be cut, either outright, via inflation, or via higher taxes.
  4. Taxes (direct and hidden), inflation, and crippling State regulations increase monotonically over time. The incentive for working as an agorist becomes greater and greater. Pretty soon, a large group of people will say "**** this!" and start working as agorists. This will further accelerate the collapse. The State has grown so large that it is dependent on massive leeching. The State won't be able to reduce its size in time, and the result will be complete collapse. (If the Libertarian pro-State troll fantasy of a return to strict limited government were realized, then the collapse could be averted. The Supreme Leader of Humanity will not allow that to happen.)
Summarizing, almost all the Constitutional restraints on the ability of insiders to loot and pillage have been removed. The larger the State grows, the easier the collapse becomes. Eventually, the incentive to work as an agorist will become too great. As more and more people join the agorist economy, that accelerates the collapse.

If agorists do a good job, then the transition to a free market economy should be smooth and nonviolent, just like the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The question is not "Will the current and economic system collapse?" but rather "How violent will the collapse be? How many people will die during the transition?" There still is time to get prepared. Other people have made estimates of "Only 20 more years until the State collapses!" A free market economy, once started, will truly "go viral". The practical benefits for the participants are too great.


F. E. Huginn said...

I'd say you're optimistic.

2012 tops.

fritz said...

My gut tells me we have 10 years tops. I hope I am wrong. It just doesn't feel like things can continue like this for very long. I just have this nagging intuition that an implosion is near.

I like that phrase go viral. Maybe we could consider agorism as a friendly virus. One that can take over after the host is dying.

2012 will be interesting. But if you calculate the end of the world probability. The odds are against you. Dec 31 2012 should be just like any other day.


heuristic said...

Well, a premise of your post is that "the state" = the USA. But the USA is only one state amongst many.

AzraelsJudgement said...

I think things in the USA will indeed collapse, but what happens after I have no idea. It is possible it may just break it many smaller States run by wannabe totalitarian Presidents. Who knows. We can hope for the best well after people freak out for ahile anyways.

Anonymous said...

When the Roman Empire collapsed that was not the end of the State. If the masses don't have a good idea of what they are going to, it's just going to be more of the same statism, regardless of whether our particular form of statism survives.

Anonymous said...

Even after the demise of the State, most people who have grown up within a state are too dependent, too dumb to be able to cope with life without the State. They would die, or they would need to learn new skills and ways fast.

Do you think electricity and water supply would still be available? Internet? Computers? Or would we all revert to a less technological era?

It is the State after all and the institutional complex around it which has created PCs and the Internet.

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